The Sturgis bike rally is in full swing, but bike-makers aren’t celebrating. Trump tariffs will hurt their operations
Judging from the political gear being worn around Sturgis this weekend — the start of the town’s annual bike rally — Donald Trump appears to be the favorite son of the Harley-Davidson culture.
He has resonated with the biker community since coming into national prominence.
Somewhat ironically, though, his long-standing relationship with the companies that bikerdom most strongly identifies with – mainly Harley-Davidson, but also Polaris (maker of Indian motorcycles) – has been somewhat shaky. That started during his first term, when Trump singled out H-D for criticism because the company planned to move some of its manufacturing operations overseas.
So far into Trump’s second term we haven’t seen a direct attack on the company, but things are not going well between Trump and the major bike-makers. The difference is that the currently souring relationship is based more on policy than rhetoric. How’s that? This time around motorcycle manufacturers will suffer because of Trump’s determined effort to impose tariffs around the globe.
American bike-makers depend on international trade both for sourcing components and sales. Trump’s tariffs will have a direct impact on them, and the outlook on that front seems grim.
Investors have already shown some wariness over H-D’s financial prospects by pounding the company’s stock pretty hard since last November, when Trump was elected. Back then the company’s stock was around $35/share. Last Friday, the first day of the Sturgis rally, the stock closed at $24.34.
This is a terrible performance, given that the market overall, despite some swings, is actually about even with where it was last November.
Harley-Davidson shareholders have watched their stock lose more than a third of its value mainly because of the tariff-uncertainty created by Trump. Last May the company suspended any forecasting for 2025 financial results because of “tariff challenges.”
H-D rival Polaris, which makes Indian motorcycles, is in the same boat. It, too, has seen its stock price get clobbered since Trump won last November. Like H-D, Polaris withdrew 2025 guidance “due to trade and economic uncertainty.”
Riders may be partying hard in Sturgis, but corporate honchos are watching the festivities with a certain amount of concern even as investors are in a state of disgust.
John Tsitrian is a businessman and writer from the Black Hills. He was a weekly columnist for the Rapid City Journal for 20 years. His articles and commentary have also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, The Denver Post and The Omaha World-Herald. Tsitrian served in the Marines for three years (1966-69), including a 13-month tour of duty as a radioman in Vietnam. Republish with permission.
Photo: After a layover in Wall, a rider readies his bike for the festivities just up the road in Sturgis. John Tsitrian
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