Kahler: Don’t go for the gold and end up with copper. Make market decisions based on knowledge, not fear

On Jan. 21, 1980, in what I thought was a brilliant financial move, I bought gold. At what was then an all-time high of $873 an ounce.

Fast-forward 45 years, and here we are again. Gold is on a tear, priced just over $3,000 an ounce at the time of this writing. It needs to rise another 16% to reach its inflation-adjusted record and many analysts think it might just get there.

What’s driving this gold rally? The same thing that drove it in 1980 — fear.

Back then, the U.S. was grappling with rising inflation, double-digit price increases, and interest rates in the high teens. Investors feared that the dollar and stock market would collapse, that their hard-earned savings would erode into oblivion, and that gold was a safe haven. Sound familiar?

Today, inflation is less dramatic and the stock market would have to go a long way down to even register as a bear market, but it’s still a major concern. Central banks are buying gold at record levels. Gold-backed ETFs, which had been seeing years of outflows, are finally pulling investors back in.

For most, gold isn’t just an investment, it’s an emotional hedge against uncertainty. Back in 1980, I wasn’t thinking about long-term strategy. I was reacting to fear. Inflation had hit 14%, and like many others, I was convinced the dollar would soon be worthless. Gold, I thought, was my best shot at preserving wealth.

The problem? Inflation eventually cooled; it had dropped to an average of 3.5% by the mid-1980s. Gold prices tumbled along with it. Investors who, like me, bought at the peak, 45 years later still haven’t broken even on an inflation-adjusted basis. (My $873 purchase price, adjusted for inflation, equates to $3,580 today.) If I had stuck with a well-diversified portfolio, I likely would have fared much better over time.

Over the years, I’ve come to realize that our financial decisions aren’t just about numbers. They’re deeply influenced by our Internal Financial System™, a framework that helps explain why we handle money the way we do. I now see that my decision to buy gold was a battle between different financial "parts" of myself.

One part panicked, convinced that money was about to become worthless. Another saw gold prices soaring and didn’t want to miss out. Yet another part convinced me that buying at the peak was still a smart move. Had I paused and examined these internal voices, I might have made a different decision.

My gold purchase shows why emotionally driven investment decisions rarely lead to great financial outcomes. Instead of asking, “Is gold a smart long-term investment?” I was asking, “How do I make sure I don’t lose everything?” Those are two very different questions.

If you’re thinking about buying gold, I urge you to consider these questions:

“Am I investing from a place of fear or strategy?” If you’re rushing in because you’re scared of inflation, pause and reassess.

“How does gold fit into my broader financial plan?” Gold can be a great hedge — if held in appropriate amounts in a diversified portfolio. It is best viewed as catastrophic financial insurance, rather than an investment.

“Am I reacting to headlines or making a well-thought-out decision?” The financial media loves a good gold rally. But remember, markets move in cycles. Today’s rally may be history repeating itself.

Back in 1980, fear persuaded me that gold was a sure thing. I forgot an essential caveat — there are no sure things in investing. If bad market timing were an Olympic sport, I’d have taken home the gold (pun intended) for least-profitable performance.

Rick Kahler, CFP, is a fee-only financial planner and financial therapist with a nationwide practice, Kahler Financial Group, based in Rapid City. His co-authored books include “Coupleship Inc.” and “The Financial Wisdom of Ebenezer Scrooge.”

Photo: public domain, wikimedia commons

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