Professors doubt SDDP woes will help Republicans; Democrats hoping for better candidates and times

Part 3 of a 3-part look at the South Dakota Democratic Party

Northern State University political science professor Jon D. Schaff said South Dakota Democrats are far behind in money, organization, registration, and elective officeholders. It is perceived as “disorganized and incompetent,” and that helps convince voters not to take it seriously.

“They need all the help they can get,” Schaff said. “This kind of organizational confusion only sets them further behind. They can’t seem to get consistency in leadership, which makes growth difficult.

“Slaight-Hansen had only recently taken over as chair and is now on her way out (pending her appeal). Not only are they now looking for yet another chair, but it signals that they had just picked a chair who wasn’t up to the job,” he said. “That’s the party’s own estimation as they are the ones who ousted Slaight-Hansen. Add this up, and their role in South Dakota politics is negligible. I think organizing ballot measures is about all they contribute, although they and other more left-leaning groups can and have had some success with that strategy. I’ll also continue to say that it is bad for the state to have such a weak opposition party. Nobody really holds the Republicans accountable or keeps them honest. The fights in South Dakota are all internal to the Republican Party.”

He said the SDDP’s mess doesn’t really help the South Dakota Republican Party.

“But the continued incompetence and irrelevance of the Democrats just makes it easier for them,” Schaff said. But, as I say, I think in some ways that hurts the Republicans because I think it sometimes makes them lazy. For example, they sometimes nominate underqualified people for office knowing that anyone they nominate will win.”

SDSU political science professor David Wiltse said the Democrats’ struggles “will be of marginal help” to the GOP.

“Quite honestly, they lacked viable opposition before, and this doesn’t change that dynamic,” he said. “What matters most in South Dakota politics is the factionalization of the Republican Party and which groups are in control of the policy process. Inter-party competition is nearly irrelevant.”

The voter registration pattern should alarm the Democrats (their logo is seen in the image above from the SDDP’s Facebook Page). They have been steadily losing support while both the Republicans and independents gain strength.

“This is a sign of two phenomena. Obviously, one is the failure of the Democratic Party,” Schaff said. “But also, as people are disaffected with politics, and many are, they are looking to independents as an alternative to the Republicans rather than the Democrats. I’ll note that anecdotally I know of a good handful of Democrats who have changed registration to Republican because the Republican primary is often the only really competitive race. So they seek to vote for the least conservative Republican.

“While I think it would take a very strong shift in the party, Democrats could attain some success in the state and increase their registration if they indeed moderated their politics (move a little toward the middle, as with Billie Sutton) and take advantage of what I think is some Republican arrogance,” he said. “Republicans take their super-majority status for granted and that makes them lazy at times.”

Wiltse sees it as part of a long-term trend in American politics.

“Over the past 20 years or so, we’ve seen a rise in ‘negative partisanship’ a consequence of affective polarization. This is where a person’s sense of partisanship is not so much based on the positive feelings you have towards your own party, but on the negative views you have of the other,” he said. “Thirty years ago, most partisans did not hold the opposition in utter contempt. They saw them as ‘loyal opposition,’ people they had honest policy and ideological differences with. What that allowed, was the possibility that people would split their tickets — which happened frequently two decades ago here and in most states.

“Recall, there were moments where the entire congressional delegations of both Dakotas were Democrats while the states were solidly Republican in presidential and gubernatorial contests. That’s changed,” Wiltse said. “Americans so vilify their opposition now, that they’d vote for virtually any person that wins the nomination simply because they see their worst possible candidate as a better option than the other party’s best. We’re at a point in this state where Democrats are thoroughly marginalized. This probably won’t change until the party coalitions shift to something quite different than they are today.”

State Sen. Reynold Nesiba, an Augustana University economics professor who is the Democratic leader in the state Senate, did not want to discuss the matter.

“We’ve moved on,” was his lone comment.

Linda Duba, a state representative from Sioux Falls, became a Democrat because her father was a union member. She also was inspired by John and Robert Kennedy, and a sense of serving others.

“At the end of the day, our whole objective is to help those less fortunate than we are,” Duba said.

She said Democrats have lost the support of farmers, and now, “rural America is Trumpland.” Democrats don’t connect with farmers, who don’t link them to policies like crop insurance and other programs they rely on. Instead, they think of Democrats as people on the far-left fringe.

In reality, most South Dakota Democrats are moderate and work well with centrist Republicans. They team up to pass many bills in Pierre, she said, including state budgets.

But in statewide races, Republicans are able to paint Democrats as extremists who are out of step with most South Dakotans.

“Republicans are very good on messaging,” she said. “They understand that you win things on the local level.”

Duba plans to run for the state Senate in 2024, hoping to fill the seat that Nesiba will vacate because of term limits. She said she relies on door-to-door campaigning to earn voter support, even among Republicans in her district.

Can Democrats gain voter numbers? Duba isn’t sure, especially without allowing younger voters to register online. Conservatives in the Legislature are opposed to that reform, she said.

“I don’t know. We’re out there trying. We’re signing up voters all the time,” Duba said. “But, again, we have to make compelling arguments. We have to have messaging.”

Duba said removing Slaight-Hansen from her post was a distraction. She said she was just a bad fit as a party leader and was unable to craft an effective message.

“She was absolutely the wrong person,” she said.

Shane Merrill, a farmer from Parker, was named the party’s interim chair. When he ran for vice chair in February, he didn’t anticipate taking on this leadership role. Merrill said he is already plenty busy as a farmer, substitute teacher, bus driver, youth sports coach, groundskeeper, summer program coordinator, sportswriter for the local paper and YouTube play-by-play announcer.

But things changed when “this whole ordeal happened,” Merrill said.

He has been interested in politics his whole life, and volunteered for Herseth Sandlin’s 2010 campaign. He served a term on the Parker City Council, and ran for the state Senate in 2016.

Merrill was advised by a lawyer not to comment on the status of Slaight-Hansen, but he does regret it all happened. He has reached out to talk to her on a personal basis, and doesn’t consider her a bad person.

“I feel bad about it,” Merrill said. “I feel bad about the whole thing.”

On Sept. 16, he was overwhelmingly elected to lead the party. Merrill said he would work to unite South Dakota Democrats and try to bring more voters into their camp.

“We must reach out to rural voters, disinterested voters, independents and moderates just like George McGovern did,” he told The Daily Beast. “I think we needed a rural voice, a farm voice, a moderate voice as chair.”

Merrill, 31, said he thinks Democrats can compete in South Dakota elections and have a louder voice in government, but it won’t be easy. Will it happen soon? Duba said it might take 20 years, with younger voters moving to the Democratic side.

“I think I’m cautiously optimistic we could do it sooner,” Merrill said. “I think history’s on our side, too. I think in my lifetime. I think everything cycles.”

He points to McGovern, who inherited a party in a deeper hole that it is in now when he became party secretary in 1953. By 1956, McGovern was elected to Congress, the start of six decades of moderate success for Democrats in the state.

“There’s been worse times,” Merrill said. “The path has been laid. It’s not going to be easy. I think it’s a multitude of factors. I think we need to get back to the basics, focus on why we are the Democratic Party of South Dakota.”

He said South Dakota Democrats need to focus on local issues, which is what he tried to do in his state Senate race.

“Getting back to the basics. All politics is local,” Merrill said. “Landowner rights — there’s just so many things. I do believe that we can at least start the conversation. It’s not going to be easy.”

While Herseth Sandlin and Brendan Johnson have repeatedly said they are not potential candidates, South Dakota Democrats hope former state Sen. Billie Sutton, who ran a close race against Noem in 2018, seeks office again.

Sutton, just 39, offers an inspiring personal story. A former professional rodeo rider, he was paralyzed from the waist down when his horse flipped upside down in a chute in 2007. But he still rides horses, and works as an investment advisor and cattle rancher. Sutton served four terms in the state Senate, rising to become minority leader, and after his narrow loss to Noem, he is seen as the party’s best hope for the future.

“There’s always room for him on the ticket,” Merrill said. “I would love to see Billie back on the ticket.”

Tom Lawrence has written for several newspapers and websites in South Dakota and other states and contributed to The New York Times, NPR, The  Telegraph, The Daily Beast and other media outlets.

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