As five Republicans jostle for South Dakota's gubernatorial nomination, it should be a fascinating family fight
There are five probable Republican candidates for governor at this time. No Democrat sacrificial lamb has been offered as of yet.
The declared or likely Republican candidates are Gov. Larry Rhoden, Attorney General Marty Jackley, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, South Dakota House Speaker Jon Hansen and Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden.
The race pits candidates from three factions of the Republican Party in South Dakota
The ultra-right-wing segment of the MAGA group. This is represented by Jon Hansen and Toby Doeden.
The Trump MAGA group. Dusty Johnson represents this group.
The Reagan Republicans. Larry Rhoden and Marty Jackley represent this group.
Larry Rhoden
The acknowledged frontrunner is Rhoden (seen above in a public domain photo posted on wikimedia commons). Even though lieutenant governor is the only statewide race he has won, his deft handling of the legislative session has allowed him to avoid serious damage from his association with Noem.
He will get additional media coverage in the next legislative session. If he also handles that well, he would be the most formidable candidate. He seems to have a good relationship with a large majority of lawmakers who influence votes in their districts.
Marty Jackley
Jackley should not be dismissed. He has won statewide elections multiple times. He is a very polished speaker and has a solid support base among first responders who have great appeal to the public. If he is able to taint Rhoden with some of the Noem mud, that race could be tight.
Dusty Johnson
Johnson is a very popular politician. He won handily in each election for the House of Representatives.
Political pundits rate his chances lower for a couple reasons. First, he is rarely in South Dakota and for the foreseeable future will avoid meeting the general public. Secondly, that problem is exacerbated by his close ties with Trump. The TACO attack will likely force Trump to impose tariffs that he intended to back away from (bluff).
If he imposes the largest tax increase in history this fall, the effects will show themselves about Christmas shopping time and through the spring leading up to the primary. Very bad news for Johnson.
Jackley and Rhoden have no such baggage and are smart enough to avoid it. If pressed on national issues, I expect them to ignore them and turn to South Dakota issues claiming that running South Dakota is the job. Johnson will have to find a way to force them to endorse the tariffs and make a level playing field.
Jon Hansen and Toby Doeden
Hansen and Doeden aren’t expected to be serious contenders. In a normal time, candidates as extreme as this would come in low single-digits against three strong contenders. However, they represent a group that, while a minority, is well-organized and passionate. They will get out their votes and between the two might garner a total percentage in the mid-upper teens.
The winning strategy will be to get a majority of the Reagan Republicans and a majority of the Trump MAGA crowd. Rhoden and Jackley will use their local connections to do just that. Dusty has fewer local ties and needs to find a way to make his MAGA credentials attractive and overcome the lack of local connections especially if he continues to eschew public meetings.
Having Trump campaign for him as he did for Noem might boost his chances.
Hansen and Doeden can’t expect to win. It may be that they simply wish to push the main contenders more toward their alt-right positions.
A counter to the Hansen-Doeden effort would be a progressive Democratic candidate whose purpose would be to pull the main Republican contenders toward more moderate positions. There is currently no progressive counter to the alt-right influence of Hansen-Doeden.
It promises to be an interesting spring!
John Cunningham of Sioux Falls has spent his career in local government finance, including in Fulton County, Ga., and Atlanta. He has a master of public administration from Harvard and has done consultant work in four foreign countries. This column first appeared on the Change Agents of South Dakota website.
Photo: public domain, wikimedia commons
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