Bengs touts poll showing him running close to Rounds

Editor’s note:  The poll referenced by Lawrence follows his column below

Brian Bengs is touting a poll his campaign paid for which makes the case that he can run a very competitive race against Sen. Mike Rounds.

But there’s an if to that claim — if Democratic Senate candidate Julian Beaudion drops out. That is a big if, since Beaudion has not indicated he is willing to do so.

On Monday, Bengs released the results of a new poll conducted May 29-30 that shows Bengs continuing to gain ground on Rounds, a Republican and former two-term governor now seeking a third term in the Senate.

It shows Rounds leading Bengs by just 4 points, 44% to 40%, cutting Rounds’ margin by 8 points since the last poll. This was the fourth consecutive public poll to show Brian tied or in the lead once positive bios of both candidates are presented, according to the Bengs campaign.

I saw the poll Sunday night, and spoke with a campaign insider.

“The Bengs campaign is very encouraged by this latest poll. In a political system designed to minimize non-partisan competition, it is an incredible feat that an independent candidate overcame the barriers to get on the ballot without the help of a party machine,” I was told. “This poll backs up what we’ve been hearing from South Dakotans statewide: they’re ready for a new voice with new ideas, and Brian is the best shot South Dakotans have at getting a senator actually working for them in Washington.”

The Public Policy Polling data is interesting. It followed South Dakota voter registration numbers, with 55% of the 726 people interviewed being Republicans, 24% Democrats and 21% independent or minor party members. It also shows support for President Trump remains strong, with 51% approving of his performance, compared to 43% disapproving and 6% undecided.

That is vitally important. You can’t win an election in this bright Red state without a lot of Republican voters in your corner. George McGovern and Tom Daschle knew that and both had long careers in Congress.

The poll shows Rounds winning a three-way race with 43% of the vote. Bengs gets 23% and Beaudion has 18%. Another 17% was undecided.

In a head-to-head match, Rounds leads Bengs 44% to 40%, with 16% undecided. Rounds leads Beaudion 56% to 31% with 13% undecided if they are the only two candidates.

Voters don’t know much about the challengers, with 67% not having an opinion on Bengs, and 68% unsure about Beaudion.

Rounds, after three decades in state politics, gets a mixed response, with 39% approving of his performance, 42% disapproving and 19% undecided.

Bengs said he is gathering momentum.

“This race is moving in one direction, and that’s toward accountability,” he said in a release. “South Dakotans are tired of career politicians who spend decades in Washington while costs keep rising and family budgets keep getting squeezed.”

Despite serving two terms in Washington, the poll reveals Rounds only has a 39% approval rating, well below the threshold an incumbent running for re-election would traditionally expect. When asked if they think Rounds deserves to be re-elected, only 35% of respondents said yes, while 55% said it is time for someone new. 

“Sen. Rounds has spent years serving the interests of Washington insiders and big-money donors,” Bengs said. “Every poll confirms what we’re hearing on the ground: people want a senator who will fight corruption, challenge special interests, and put working families in line ahead of billionaires.”

Bengs points to successful fundraising, strong polling and a campaign infrastructure that has garnered more than 4,500 signatures to get on the ballot and identified county captains across South Dakota.

I tried to contact the Beaudion campaign for comments but did not hear back. I look forward to speaking with his campaign, and sitting down with him. We want to hear his side of this story, and understand how he thinks he can win.

It’s a highly emotional issue, as I have learned through social media discussions. Bengs’ backers think the only path to victory is by running as an independent. They argue that Beaudion has not raised enough money or gathered enough support to mount a competitive campaign.

Beaudion’s supporters say he is the Democratic nominee and will not leave the race. He gave a well-received speech at the McGovern Day Dinner Friday night and has the backing of the state party.

In the end, I doubt either man will walk away. They both want to be a United States senator, and both think they can thread the needle to defeat a long-established politician like Mike Rounds.

The odds are against them. If both are in the race, they likely split the progressive and anti-Rounds vote. If just one runs, they still face a daunting challenge.

Bengs told The South Dakota Standard that he admires Beaudion. But he does have a question for him and his supporters:

“I respect anyone who wants to run for public office. Julian is a good man,” he said. “When conversations about dropping out come up, I think every candidate — myself included — should ask: What’s in the best interest of South Dakotans?”

The PPP poll:

Public Policy Polling, conducted May 29-30

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Donald Trump is doing? 

Approve 51% 

Disapprove 43%

Not sure 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Rounds? 

Favorable 38%

Unfavorable 41%

Not sure 21%

Q3 Regardless of how you feel about him personally, do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. Mike Rounds is doing? 

Approve 39%

Disapprove 42%

Not sure 19%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Brian Bengs? 

Favorable 17% 

Unfavorable 16% 

Not sure 67%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Julian Beaudion? 

Favorable 13% 

Unfavorable 19%

Not sure 68%

Q6 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were Republican Mike Rounds, independent Brian Bengs, and Democrat Julian Beaudion, who would you vote for? 

Mike Rounds 43%

Brian Bengs 23% 

Julian Beaudion 18%

Not sure 16%

Q7 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were just Republican Mike Rounds and Democrat Julian Beaudion, who would you vote for? 

Mike Rounds 56%

Julian Beaudion 31% 

Not sure 13% 

Q8 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were just Republican Mike Rounds and independent Brian Bengs, who would you vote for? 

Mike Rounds 44%

Brian Bengs 40% 

Not sure 16% 

Q9 In the 2024 election for president, did you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Kamala Harris, someone else, or did you not vote in the election?  

Donald Trump 63% 

Kamala Harris 34% 

Someone else / Did not vote 3%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. If you are gender non-binary, press 3. 

Woman 52% 

Man 46%

Gender non-binary 2%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If an independent, press 3. 

Democrat 24%

Republican 55%

Independent 21%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. 

White 93%

Other 7%

Q13 If you are 18-45 years old, press 1. If 46-65, press 2. If older than 65, press 3. 

18 to 45 30% 

46 to 65 41%

Older than 65 29% 

Q14 What is the highest level of education you have received: high school graduate or less, some college but did not finish, 2-year college degree, 4-year college degree, or post-graduate degree? 

High school graduate or less 29%

Some college but did not finish 21%

2-year college degree 14%

4-year college degree 24%

Post-graduate degree 12%

Q15 Do you live in an urban area, a suburban area or a rural area? 

Urban 25%

Suburban 22%

Rural 53%

Q16 Media Market 

Rapid City 26%

Sioux Falls 72%

Other 2%

Q17 Mode 

Landline 42%

Text 58%

Fourth-generation South Dakotan Tom Lawrence has written for several newspapers and websites in South Dakota and other states for four decades. He has contributed to The New York Times, NPR, The London Telegraph, The Daily Beast and other media outlets. Do not republish without permission.

Photo: Bengs, from his Facebook page. 

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