Farm Bureau: Farmers will lose $32 billion in ‘27. Will it help Dems in Nov.?

Framing everything newsworthy in the politics of an off-year election this Fall, I read that another year of losses are likely to descend on row crop farmers in this country. According to an American Farm Bureau news release on July 16, “several years of high inflation and low commodity prices, coupled with volatile production costs, are continuing to squeeze farmers financially. These forces are projected to hit farmers with $32 billion in losses for the major row crops in 2027 after a projected loss of $31 billion in 2026.”

By “major row crops” AFBF means mainly corn and soybeans, which account for about 12 million acres, combined, in South Dakota, and wheat, which  accounts for another 1.3 million acres in our state. 

Farmers can lay the blame for their financial stress on President Trump.

First, his still-inexcplicable fixation 0n tariffs, both during his first and current terms, has basically reset international trade fundamentals for corn and soybean producers. South America's corn and soybean production and export market shares have grown significantly as a direct result of trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs between the U.S. and China. China heavily shifted its agricultural purchasing to South American nations like Brazil and Argentina to bypass tariffs on American crops. 

Second, input costs have risen significantly because of Trump’s international policies, with energy, fertilizer and machinery costs rising because of tariff and shooting wars.

Farmers are getting stuck with high costs and low prices thanks to Trump.

AFBF’s latest projection for 2027 comes as no surprise and should make things interesting for rural districts come November. No doubt Democrats see a chance to make some gains in ag-oriented districts thanks to the tough economic atmosphere Trump has created for farmers.

I hope they’re right but I’m dubious.

For one thing, Trump has been shelling out cash assistance to farmers (which I support because we need a financially solvent ag industry as a matter of national security) since his first term. For another, I think broader cultural and political values are a strong basis for the bond between farmers and Trump.  

I’m guessing that Democrats hoping for a turn against Trump in rural districts this Fall will be disappointed. Trump’s cash bailouts may be a “band-aid on a bigger wound,” but they do keep people afloat, which I think will be enough to keep the president’s support intact.

John Tsitrian is a businessman and writer from the Black Hills. He was a weekly columnist for the Rapid City Journal for 20 years. His articles and commentary have also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, The Denver Post and The Omaha World-Herald. Tsitrian served in the Marines for three years (1966-69), including a 13-month tour of duty as a radioman in Vietnam. Republish with permission. 

Photo: public domain, wikimedia commons

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