GOP quartet’s fascinating family feud in run for governor

In one week, two or three prominent Republicans will be very unhappy.

The June 2 GOP primary to determine a gubernatorial candidate will weed out at least two of the four candidates, since the winner needs to obtain at least 35% of the vote to avoid a runoff.

Some of the losers — including three of the most powerful politicians in the state — might need to find new jobs.

Gov. Larry Rhoden wants to keep the title for another four years and win a full term in his own right. Rhoden served in the state Senate and the House of Representatives before Kristi Noem — remember her? — picked him as her running mate in 2018.

Recent polls have Rhoden running behind the leader. If he doesn’t win the primary, or qualify for the runoff, is this the end of his political career?

Rep. Dusty Johnson is surrendering his congressional seat in a bid to be governor. Johnson has steadily climbed the ladder, from the Public Utilities Commission to chief of staff to Gov. Dennis Daugaard to four terms in Congress. If he doesn’t win or make the cut, what’s the next move for this ambitious man?

Speaker of the House Jon Hansen is also walking away from his current post with his eyes on the governor’s chair. Hansen has never led in polls and has raised the least amount of money. If he doesn’t move ahead, he may return to the Legislature at some point.

This is the first political campaign for Toby Doeden, an Aberdeen businessman who has poured $4 million of his own money into the race. Doeden is the outsider running against three veterans, which might appeal to voters. Even if he doesn’t get the nomination, he has emerged as a significant figure in Republican politics.

hWhat have we learned in this campaign?

Dusty Johnson has tried to have it both ways, running a series of ads that depict him as a humble, good-natured guy with three energetic sons. At one point, I was afraid we’d be inundated with commercials featuring the Johnson boys all through the spring.

But Dusty also targeted Rhoden, and later Hansen, as advocates of oppressive taxation who were hammering the little guy. The ads, some from an “independent” political organization, were sharply worded. Was Dusty getting down in the dirt?

Don’t let this take you by surprise. Johnson is a lifelong politician who has been trying to label his opponents before they can do so themselves. Rhoden said Johnson threatened to drop tons of negative ads on his head if he entered the primary.

Looks like that was not an idle threat.

Rhoden is rallying with his campaign pitch, but this is his first statewide race as the lead candidate. He seems a tad unsure in his boots, and doesn’t appear at ease during interviews or in his ads. Like the other two governors who were not elected — Democrat Harvey Wollman and Republican Walter Dale Miller — Rhoden’s tenure in office might be limited.

Hansen has struggled to make his voice heard. He was the last of the four to start airing ads. His message is not entirely clear, either. What makes him different, and why should he be handed control of state government?

Doeden has adopted the Donald Trump method, blasting career politicians and making promises that he almost assuredly cannot keep if he ends up elected. Dropping property taxes makes for a good campaign ad, but try to get that approved in Pierre in 2027.

Still, he has moved to the lead in the most recent poll, and his message that a career businessman is better suited to guide South Dakota than three professional politicians is likely resonating with voters. Doeden could be the story of this election.

Trump has not endorsed any of this quartet, but all are using his name. Republicans must bow to the president, who remains wildly popular among party members even as his overall numbers continue to sink.

Will Trump pick a candidate in the closing days? He likes to be associated with winners so he can take the credit, so he is probably being advised of the polls. A last-minute endorsement might tip the scales.

One name we are not hearing is Noem’s. Since her spectacular implosion, she has kept an extremely low profile, and Rhoden, who ran with her in two successful campaigns, has not mentioned her very often.

Johnson, Hansen and Doeden don’t seem to know who was governor before Rhoden. Kristi who?

One person who is assuredly enjoying this four-way scramble is Democratic candidate Dan Ahlers. The Democrats haven’t elected a governor since 1974 and have rarely been able to compete for the post.

Ahlers will be outspent in the General Election campaign. Republicans heavily outnumber Democrats, with independents and minor party members surpassing them as well. It’s a tall order to run for governor as a Democrat in this state.

But a family battle among Republicans has to help, as they spend millions and level charges against each other that will resonate through the fall. Whoever emerges as the winner will try to unite the party, and that won’t be easy if the campaign turns nasty in the closing days.

I am sure Rhoden isn’t happy with the labels Johnson and his allies have tried to stick to him in recent weeks. If he isn’t the nominee, will the governor play good soldier and work hard for someone else?

These last few days will be fascinating to witness, and irritating to the eyes and ears as more and more TV ads demand our attention. The Republican quartet is making closing arguments, and it’s still unclear who will be more persuasive.

Fourth-generation South Dakotan Tom Lawrence has written for several newspapers and websites in South Dakota and other states for four decades. He has contributed to The New York Times, NPR, The London Telegraph, The Daily Beast and other media outlets. Do not republish without permission.

Photo: 2024 South Dakota electoral map for U.S. House, by county, public domain, wikimedia commons

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