After a string of policy flubs, Trump is losing support in rural America

President Trump has a long history of popularity in rural districts, but after one trade policy flub followed by another – and this is going back to his first term – President Trump is finally losing support in rural America.  

According to a Fox News Poll released last month, his net approval among rural voters has fallen 34 points since 2025, dropping from +20 to -14.   

Trump’s fixation on tariffs has proven to be a debacle for many farmers, and the damage hasn’t just been short term. Most harmful to soybean farmers – a potent economic force here in South Dakota – has been the way Brazil, during Trump’s tenures as president, has turned into a major supplier of soybeans for China.

When Trump first took office in 2017, Brazil accounted for 41% of China’s soybean imports. In recent years that number has grown to 71%. The growth of Brazilian production and the loss of Chinese business has had its predictable effect, keeping soybean prices persistently low for the past several years now.

Trump’s multi-billion dollar bailouts to farmers during both terms helped ease the cash crunch that his poorly thought out tariff policies created, but after years of applying financial bandages, it looks like Trump’s historically strong supporters in rural districts are losing patience.   

Considering that Trump carried rural districts by a 64-34 margin in 2024, the just-released  numbers from Fox News must be making GOP strategists a bit nervous as they figure out how to navigate their way into the coming mid-term election.

I doubt that there will much of a turn-around for Trump’s falling approval numbers in coming months because frustrated farmers are unlikely to see much improvement in the depressed markets that determine their livelihoods.

The supply/demand fundamentals for soybeans are not particularly encouraging. The USDA in its market outlook published last week notes that there has been strong domestic demand for soybeans, but that lower exports are offsetting that demand and keeping prices at well below break even levels, signalling a fourth consecutive year of losses for farmers.

How this will affect outcomes in the myriad political races come November is anybody’s guess, but Republicans who’ve been taking rural voters for granted shouldn’t be surprised if their usually reliable supporters don’t come across as expected. 

John Tsitrian is a businessman and writer from the Black Hills. He was a weekly columnist for the Rapid City Journal for 20 years. His articles and commentary have also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, The Denver Post and The Omaha World-Herald. Tsitrian served in the Marines for three years (1966-69), including a 13-month tour of duty as a radioman in Vietnam. Republish with permission. 

Photo: public domain, wikimedia commons

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