About the war in Iran, Machiavelli’s dictum got it right: ‘Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please.’
Anybody see an end game? I don’t.
After a pulverizing campaign that has destroyed most, if not all, of Iran’s military capability, the most startling element of Trump’s war of choice in Iran is the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. It seems to have caught the administration off guard. Who could have predicted that after the battering that Iran has taken from American armaments during the past couple of weeks that such a vital shipping lane could be bottlenecked by Iran’s drastically depleted forces?
This miscalculation illustrates the truism, above, from the 16th Century diplomat and author Niccolo Machiavelli. His many works regarding leadership and politics in Renaissance Italy are classics that have been required reading for legions of scholars during the centuries since.
I have no doubt that Niccolo would be shaking his head knowingly as he listens to President Trump and his official spokespeople give various predictions about the timeline for the Iranian war.
At the start of the war, Trump said it would last “four to five weeks,” so three weeks into the war, we still have enough time left for that prediction to become accurate.
On the other hand, on March 9 he told CBS News that the war is “very complete.” That sounds to me like it’s over, but the message was mixed. During the same interview he also said of the Strait of Hormuz that he’s “thinking about taking it over,” giving the impression that there might be more to accomplish in a war that he says is “very complete.”
As it turns out, Trump’s confusing afterthought about the Strait seems to have been premature. If the U.S. has the will and the resources to take the Strait over single-handedly, you have to wonder why we’re now soliciting help from navies around the world, including those that belong to our allies in NATO. Trump, reaching out to a perennial adversary, has sought China’s assistance, too.
There hasn’t been much in news reports about how the countries solicited by Trump have reacted to his overtures. I’m guessing that they have to be wondering how Trump, who got into this war singlehandedly, needs them for assistance now that he wants some help finishing it off.
More ominously, Trump is sending a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Iran theater. What they’ll be doing there is anybody’s guess, but having been part of the gradual military expansion that turned into a giant fiasco in Vietnam, I hope this isn’t the first stage of an escalation in Iran. I recoil at the thought of my fellow Marines being used in a war that seems to have no clearly defined endgame, other than Trump’s assertion that we’ll know the war is over when, as the president said, he “feels it in my bones.”
Meantime, on the homefront, gas prices are way up, no doubt ready to work their way into the general economy at a time when inflation has been at the top of our collective minds.
More specifically for South Dakota, the energy price explosion has had its effect on fertilizer costs, which are shooting skyward. About one-third of the world’s fertilizer ingredients pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so if this venture into Iran doesn’t end soon, you can expect food costs to increase significantly.
Given Trump’s promise to reduce food prices on “day one” of his administration, this would be a particularly galling outcome of the war in Iran, which I’m beginning to doubt will end when we please.
John Tsitrian is a businessman and writer from the Black Hills. He was a weekly columnist for the Rapid City Journal for 20 years. His articles and commentary have also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, The Denver Post and The Omaha World-Herald. Tsitrian served in the Marines for three years (1966-69), including a 13-month tour of duty as a radioman in Vietnam. Republish with permission.
Photo: public domain, wikimedia commons
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