What next for not-so-high-flyers Kristi Noem and Dusty Johnson?
Politics can take sudden turns for prominent people planning their future. Dick Nixon was an expert on the topic.
We’ve had two examples of that in South Dakota this year in Kristi Noem and Dusty Johnson. Both were highly successful politicians who rose steadily — until 2026.
Noem had the biggest fall. She has enjoyed an unblemished run of almost two decades, including two terms in the South Dakota House of Representatives, followed by four terms in the United States House of Representatives before was elected governor in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. Noem was riding an impressive streak as well as the horses and motorcycles she often posed on.
She was undefeated in South Dakota politics, a claim that such famous figures as Karl Mundt, George McGovern, James Abourezk, Tom Daschle, Bill Janklow and John Thune could not make.
The late Tim Johnson, a four-term state legislator who won five terms in the U.S. House and three in the Senate, and Mike Rounds, who served five terms in the South Dakota Senate, did two terms as governor and is seeking a third term in the U.S. Senate, also never lost an election. Rounds hopes to keep that impressive streak alive this fall.
Noem was never defeated, at least at the polls. But her career, and personal life, took major hits this year. She was fired as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in March after a disastrous performance before the Senate Judiciary Committee and months of missteps in her role.
President Trump, once an ardent admirer, created a new post for her as U.S. Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas — Western Hemisphere. Let us know if you figure out what the heck that means.
Noem has started to emerge from isolation, appearing on NewsMax with host Greta Van Susteren on Saturday. Van Susteren lobbed a softball question and Noem promptly fouled it off her foot.
She was asked who was our “best friend in South America” right now.
Noem praised several nations, including El Salvador and Costa Rica. The problem?Both are located in Central America, not South America.
It’s the kind of thing a special envoy ought to know. Noem, who studied at several South Dakota universities and was awarded a diploma by South Dakota State University for her remote studies while in Congress, needs to hit the geography books.
She also has to ponder her future. There were reports she was considering returning home this spring to make a late entry into the congressional race, but that did not occur. Her life was tipped upside down by continued rumors of an affair with her top aide, political consultant Corey Lewandowski, whose sordid reputation was further blackened by suspicions about his role in approving contracts for DHS.
New chapters of that story will likely unfold.
Then there was the sad saga of Noem’s husband Bryon and his private sex life as a cross-dresser who paid sex workers for seamy online chats. That was not on many bingo cards. Only Kristi and Bryon know what has, is and will happen within that marriage.
Noem appears to have a very comfortable net worth — $5 million appears in searches — thanks to her government salaries, farm and ranch investments and other businesses. Does she plan to run for office again? It seems unlikely, as least at this point.
Her reputation, both professionally and personally, is at a low ebb. She can continue along in her obscure but well-paying government job — she made over $250,000 a year at Homeland Security and likely has a similar salary now — and wait for an opportunity.
On Tuesday, it was announced she will serve on the advisory board of NovaRed Mining, a Canadian mineral exploration firm. It won’t interfere with her duties on the other end of the continent, apparently.
It might be a sign she is looking at a career outside of politics. We will elect a governor, so that job is taken for four years.
Sen. Rounds is facing Democratic candidate Julian Beaudion and independent Brian Bruns. One of those three will be in the Senate until 2033.
In December 2021, Sen. Thune talked to me about not running for a fourth term, saying his wife preferred he call it a career, but he did run and win in 2022.
He is now the Senate majority leader, and it seems to be a post he enjoys, despite having to constantly grit his teeth over another Trump outrage. Thune knows who owns the party.
But he has a solid base of support within the GOP ranks and plans to survive this … odious occupancy of the Oval Office. Will American politics and government recover and return to what Thune has been used for decades? Can he help lead the way back — and forward?
I’d guess Thune will seek a fifth term. He is just 65, still lean and appears very healthy, if understandably weary and worn a bit. Would Noem consider a primary challenge? That would be a tall order, but she could go Full Trump on him in a bid to seize the seat.
Her old House seat would be available in two years. Is that an option? Maybe it would be if Democrat Nikki Gronli wins. Would Noem take on Republican Marty Jackley in 2028 if he is elected? She defeated him in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary.
So, her options are limited. If she survives the rest of Trump’s term as a member of his team, she can hold onto that. What then? Will a conservative media outlet offer her a job? Her own radio show — Riding Herd with Kristi?
Maybe she will return to a quiet life in rural Castlewood. But after the whirlwind she has experienced in the last 16 years, will that satisfy her? Will her marriage survive all this turmoil?
At 54, she has many productive years left. But what will she do with them?
That’s a question she surely didn’t expect to face when she and Lewandowski were trying to turn her into a vice-presidential or even presidential candidate. It went from a pair of jet-set, high-flying positions to a complete train wreck.
Johnson also had an unblemished record as a candidate. Had. Tuesday, June 2, was not the night he anticipated, as he finished out of the running for the GOP nomination.
His biggest issue was ambition, as like Noem, he jumped from job to job as he climbed South Dakota’s political ladder.
Johnson was elected to the Public Utilities Commission in 2004 when he was just 28. He was re-elected to another six-year term in 2010 but didn’t serve, resigning to become Gov. Dennis Daugaard’s chief of staff, a post he held until 2014.
Johnson then entered the private sector while eying a run for office. After a tenure at Vantage Point Solutions in Mitchell, he ran for Congress in 2018 as Noem entered the governor’s race.
Johnson was easily elected in 2018 and breezed to three more terms, handily defeating primary and general election opponents, with Democrats passing on the race in 2018 and 2020. Then, came 2026 and the opportunity to move to another post, where he would be one of one, not one of 435.
Noem resigned as governor and Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden moved up. Johnson liked his chances against Rhoden and announced he would seek the nomination. Rhoden said he would run for a full term, and South Dakota Speaker of the House Jon Hansen also entered the race.
That looked like an interesting contest featuring three well-known public figures. But a fledgling politician with a lot of money to spend, Toby Doeden of Aberdeen, shook up the race with $4 million of his own money and a Trump-like style of tough talk and sneering appearance.
It was a new race. Johnson seemed to adopt two personas. His campaign ran a deluge of TV commercials showing him with his sons and with just plain folks in South Dakota, along with some solo spots of him walking along a rural road, talking about his family’s struggles.
But he also was supported by a series of hard-hitting spots attacking Rhoden and Hansen. They were especially hard on the governor, using harsh terms to describe him.
That caused the normally calm Rhoden to push back, saying Johnson had threatened to be hard on him during the campaign and urging him to stay out. He also said the links between Johnson and the attack ads, paid for by a private political action committee, was clear.
That duality hurt Johnson, I believe. He had spent more than two decades as the folksy, friendly guy in orange who waved from sidewalks, smiled in parades and did pleasant interviews with the media.
Suddenly, he was involved in a bitter campaign and his supporters were playing rough. After early polls showed him the clear favorite, with an opportunity to win the nomination outright, he slipped to third and didn’t even make the runoff.
Rhoden, whom he attacked relentlessly, and Doeden, who took aim at Johnson as well as Rhoden and Hansen, are vying for the nomination. Dusty was left in the, well, dust. Will he endorse either man? Would either want the backing of someone who they so publicly disparaged?
Aw, politics. Friends, enemies and allies all in just a few months.
Johnson has been mostly silent since this defeat, issuing just this statement: “It has been the honor of my lifetime to represent South Dakota in Congress these past eight years.”
He admitted to being “disappointed in the outcome,” but vowed to help Republican candidates win in November. He didn’t mention any particular candidate. It’s just too soon.
Now what? He faces the same political realities as Noem. All four major offices will be filled in 2027, with only his old House seat and Thune’s seat post up for grabs — maybe — in 2028.
With his name, experience, talents and pleasant nature, Johnson will have many offers and opportunities. Lobbying or serving as a “consultant” while biding his time and weighing his options isn’t a bad life for a man who is so interested in policy and politics. That’s who Dusty always has been, at nature.
Dustin Michael Johnson turns 50 on Sept. 30, and this year marks the end of his run as the boy wonder of South Dakota politics. Now, the man has to wonder why he left the security of a U.S. House seat — and what he is going to do next.
Fourth-generation South Dakotan Tom Lawrence has written for several newspapers and websites in South Dakota and other states for four decades. He has contributed to The New York Times, NPR, The London Telegraph, The Daily Beast and other media outlets. Do not republish without permission.
Photo: public domain, wikimedia commons
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